Pre-Release Sales Forecast & Investment Analysis: Death Howl
Death Howl shows healthy wishlist volume but suffers from a "stale" audience cohort gathered early in 2025. We expect a solid but contained launch with ~25k unit sales in the first month. For investors in $11B, this release carries low risk but offers limited upside.
Pre-Release Sales Forecast & Investment Analysis: Death Howl
Executive Summary
Death Howl is a "Soulslike Deckbuilder" developed by The Outer Zone and published by 11 bit studios (Ticker: $11B on GPW). Scheduled for release in December 2025, the title occupies a competitive "niche within a niche," blending card-battler mechanics with dark fantasy exploration.
Momentum Verdict: Neutral / Cautionary. While the Global Wishlist Rank (328) suggests a "Gold Tier" indie release (potential for ~90k wishlists), the Follower Velocity analysis reveals a critical risk: "Stale Hype." A significant portion of interest was generated in early 2025, followed by a long plateau. Conversion rates for these "old" wishlists are historically 40–50% lower than fresh additions. We project a front-loaded revenue profile with a fast drop-off. This title is likely immaterial to $11B's annual stock performance (<3% of revenue) but serves as a portfolio filler between major releases.
Game & Company Overview
- Game Title: Death Howl
- Release Date: December 9, 2025 (Target Window)
- Developer: The Outer Zone
- Publisher: 11 bit studios S.A. (Ticker: $11B, Warsaw Stock Exchange)
- Genre: Soulslike Deckbuilder / Turn-Based Strategy / Adventure
- Platforms: PC (Steam) initially.
- Price Estimate: $19.99 – $24.99 USD.
Trend & Momentum Analysis
1. Follower Velocity & Growth Curve
- Total Followers: 7,733 (as of Dec 6, 2025).
- Implied Wishlists: ~77,000 – 92,000 (using a 10x–12x multiplier).
- "Hype Freshness" Risk: The growth curve is highly non-linear.
- Jan–Feb 2025 (Spike): Followers jumped from ~1,100 (Jan 21) to ~4,670 (Feb 15).
- Mar–Oct 2025 (Stagnation): Growth flattened significantly. Between Feb 15 and Oct 15, the game added only ~2,100 followers over 8 months.
- Nov–Dec 2025 (Recovery): Recent acceleration in the last 30 days, moving from ~6,900 to ~7,700.
- Analysis: Approximately 60% of the wishlist cohort is >9 months old. These users likely wishlisted based on the initial concept and may have cooled off.
2. Wishlist Rank Trajectory
- Current Rank: 328 (Global).
- Trend: The rank has shown volatility but general improvement. It dropped to rank 500+ in early February 2025, but has climbed steadily to break into the top 330 by December.
- Interpretation: A rank of 328 typically correlates with 80,000+ wishlists, validating our follower-based estimates. The recent climb indicates successful pre-launch visibility efforts.
Market & Sentiment Analysis
1. USP Critical Assessment
- The Hook: "Soulslike Deckbuilder." The game attempts to merge Slay the Spire mechanics with the atmosphere of Dark Souls (reviving enemies, grim lore).
- Risk: The "Soulslike" tag is often overused. If the difficulty balance is off, reviews will turn "Mixed" rapidly. The deckbuilder market is saturated (Balatro, Slay the Spire clones). Death Howl relies heavily on its narrative/atmosphere (similar to Black Book) to stand out.
2. Regional Pricing Strategy
- Based on 11 bit studios' history with titles like The Thaumaturge and Gord, we expect:
- China (CN):
¥70–90 ($10–13 USD). - LATAM/CIS: Aggressive pricing at 40–50% of USD base to drive volume.
- Impact: High unit sales in these regions will dilute the Blended ASP (Average Selling Price).
- China (CN):
Benchmark Comparison
We utilized Gamalytic and SteamDB data for comparable dark/narrative deckbuilders.
| Metric | Target: Death Howl | Benchmark 1: Black Book | Benchmark 2: Tainted Grail: Conquest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genre Match | High (Dark Narrative Card RPG) | High (Slavic Myth Card RPG) | Med (Open World Deckbuilder) |
| Launch Peak CCU | Target: 1,500 – 2,500 | ~1,800 | ~4,200 |
| Follower Conversion | Est: 10-12% (Stale list) | High (Strong Narrative) | High (Open World Hype) |
CCU Ratio Analysis:
- Black Book had strong narrative appeal, similar to Death Howl. Its Peak CCU to Follower ratio at launch was approx 0.25.
- Applying 0.25 to Death Howl's 7,733 followers = ~1,933 Peak CCU.
Sales & CCU Forecast (12-Month)
Key Assumptions:
- Base Price: $24.99.
- Blended ASP: $14.00 (Accounting for regional pricing and Steam's 30% cut not yet deducted).
- Net Revenue: Publisher receives ~70% of Gross.
- Conversion Rate: Adjusted down to 10–12% (vs standard 15%) due to the "Stale" wishlist cohort from early 2025.
Scenario 1: Pessimistic (Mixed Reviews / Niche Appeal)
- Condition: "Mixed" reviews (60-69%) due to difficulty spikes.
- Launch Peak CCU: 800 – 1,100
- Month 1 Units: 12,000
- Year 1 Units: 28,000
- Gross Revenue (Yr 1): ~$390,000
- Net Revenue (Yr 1): ~$273,000
Scenario 2: Neutral (Base Case)
- Condition: "Very Positive" (80%+) reviews. Captures the Black Book audience.
- Launch Peak CCU: 1,800 – 2,200
- Month 1 Units: 28,000
- Year 1 Units: 65,000
- Gross Revenue (Yr 1): ~$910,000
- Net Revenue (Yr 1): ~$637,000
Scenario 3: Optimistic (Viral Hit)
- Condition: Streamers champion the game mechanics.
- Launch Peak CCU: 3,500+
- Month 1 Units: 45,000
- Year 1 Units: 110,000
- Gross Revenue (Yr 1): ~$1,540,000
- Net Revenue (Yr 1): ~$1,078,000
Forecast Table: Neutral Scenario (Cumulative)
| Month | Monthly Units Sold | Cumulative Units | Est. Monthly Revenue (Gross) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | 28,000 | 28,000 | $392,000 | Launch Spike (Pre-orders + Week 1) |
| Month 2 | 6,500 | 34,500 | $91,000 | Post-launch decay (-75%) |
| Month 3 | 4,000 | 38,500 | $56,000 | Stabilizing |
| Month 4 | 3,000 | 41,500 | $42,000 | Long tail begins |
| Month 5 | 2,500 | 44,000 | $35,000 | |
| Month 6 | 5,000 | 49,000 | $60,000 | First Major Discount (20-25%) |
| Month 7 | 2,000 | 51,000 | $28,000 | |
| Month 8 | 1,800 | 52,800 | $25,200 | |
| Month 9 | 1,500 | 54,300 | $21,000 | |
| Month 10 | 1,500 | 55,800 | $21,000 | |
| Month 11 | 1,200 | 57,000 | $16,800 | |
| Month 12 | 8,000 | 65,000 | $90,000 | Winter/Seasonal Sale (33-40%) |
| TOTAL | 65,000 | 65,000 | ~$910,000 |
Risk Factors & Catalysts
- Saturation Risk (High): The "Roguelike Deckbuilder" tag has massive competition. Death Howl must differentiate immediately via art style.
- Release Window (High Risk): Releasing in early December is risky. It clashes with major holiday sales where older, AAA games are heavily discounted.
- Catalyst: A Console Release (Switch/PS5) planned for 2026 provides a second revenue tail not modeled in the PC-only forecast above.
Investment Takeaways ($11B)
1. Critical Scale Comparison
- Company Revenue: 11 bit studios generates significant annual revenue from its back catalogue (Frostpunk, This War of Mine).
- Impact: Even in the Optimistic Scenario ($1.0M Net Revenue), Death Howl represents <2-3% of 11 bit studios' annual turnover.
- Verdict: This title is financially immaterial to the stock price in the short term. It functions as a portfolio diversifier within their publishing label (11 bit publishing) rather than a flagship growth driver.
2. ROI Analysis
- Estimated Budget: Low-Mid Indie ($300k – $500k dev / $150k marketing).
- Projected Net: ~$637k (Neutral).
- ROI: The project is likely to break even and turn a modest profit, but it will not be a "company maker."
3. Strategic Context
- This release validates 11 bit's strategy of funding smaller, "dark/meaningful" indie titles to keep the release schedule active between their internal AAA-lite productions.
Conclusion
Death Howl shows healthy wishlist volume but suffers from a "stale" audience cohort gathered early in 2025. We expect a solid but contained launch with ~25k unit sales in the first month. For investors in $11B, this release carries low risk but offers limited upside. Watch for the Launch Peak CCU on release day; a number below 1,000 would indicate a failure to convert the older wishlists.
Upcoming GDI Features: In future forecast updates, we plan to introduce deeper live-ops analysis and long-tail DLC revenue projections.