Executive Summary: The "Night City" Life Support

Verdict: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Let’s address the elephant in the room immediately: CD Projekt is currently a one-trick pony. But what a trick it is. In Q3 2025, the company pulled a rabbit out of the hat—not with a new game, but by squeezing every last drop of revenue from Cyberpunk 2077.

The headline numbers are dazzling (+148% Net Profit YoY), but they are driven almost entirely by the "Cyberpunk product family" and a timely platform expansion. The forensic detail that matters most isn't just the 53% revenue jump; it's the Nintendo Switch 2. The company explicitly attributes rising costs and revenues to the "Nintendo Switch 2 edition," confirming the hardware's launch window provided a massive, albeit non-repeatable, tailwind.

While the numbers look great on paper, the underlying reality is stark: The Witcher revenue has collapsed by nearly half (-52%). The company is effectively running on the fumes of Night City while Project Polaris (Witcher 4) burns cash in production. The bull case rests on whether Cyberpunk's long tail can bridge the gap to 2026/2027 without snapping.

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Key Financial Metrics (YoY)

The "Base Effect" here is favorable. Q3 2024 was decent, but Q3 2025 benefited from the Cyberpunk 2077 launch on new platforms (Switch 2, Mac) and its inclusion in PlayStation Plus Extra/Premium.

Source: Consolidated Profit and Loss Account Q3 2025

Forensic Note: The Net Profit margin of 55% is abnormally high. This is typical for a company living off back-catalog sales (where development costs are already sunk or amortizing slowly) rather than new releases. Do not expect this margin to sustain once marketing for Polaris ramps up.

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Portfolio & Sales Performance

1. Cyberpunk 2077 & Phantom Liberty (The Lifeline)

• Total Lifetime Sales: Surpassed 35 million copies.
• Segment Revenue: 252.7M PLN (up 118% YoY).
• The Switch 2 Factor: Management explicitly cited "promotional activity... including the Nintendo Switch 2 edition" as a driver for selling expenses. Reports indicate Cyberpunk 2077 was the best-selling third-party title during the Switch 2 launch window.

Verdict: Hit. The "redemption arc" is monetarily complete. The game has successfully transitioned into a "platform" that sells on every new piece of hardware (Mac, Switch 2).

2. The Witcher Series (The Fading Star)

• Segment Revenue: 26.1M PLN (down 52% YoY).
• Analysis: This drop is precipitous. Q3 2024 benefited from The Witcher 3 joining PS Plus; Q3 2025 had no such catalyst.
• Vagueness Alert: Management glazed over this decline, focusing entirely on Cyberpunk. The Witcher franchise is currently dormant in terms of revenue generation.

Verdict: Dormant. Until the remake or Polaris arrives, this revenue stream is drying up.

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Future Outlook & Pipeline

Management is betting the house on Polaris. The shift in developer headcount confirms we are in full production.

• Project Polaris (The Witcher 4):

  • Status: Production Phase.
  • Team Size: 447 developers (Main focus).
  • Timeline Reality Check: With nearly 450 people on it now (Oct 2025), a release before late 2026 or 2027 is highly unlikely. The cash burn here will increase significantly in upcoming quarters.

• Project Orion (Cyberpunk 2):

  • Status: Pre-production (Boston Studio).
  • Team Size: 135 developers.
  • Insight: Still ramping up. Don't expect this before 2028+.

• Project Sirius (Witcher Spinoff):

  • Team Size: 56 developers.
  • Risk: The smaller team suggests this is either a smaller scope project or stuck in concept hell (rebooted once already).

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Risk Assessment

• Single-IP Risk: The company is currently surviving solely on Cyberpunk 2077. If interest in this single title wanes before Polaris launches, there is no safety net. The Witcher 3 revenue has already halved.
• Amortization Games: The CFO noted costs were lower due to "applying a declining amortization model" and "extending the amortization scheme". This is an accounting maneuver that boosts paper profit but doesn't reflect cash generation.

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Management Commentary

Michał Nowakowski (Joint CEO):

"Sales of the game have exceeded 35 million copies... enables us to be even more audacious about charting its future."

• Translation: We have enough cash reserves (1.4 billion PLN) to survive the long winter of development without rushing Polaris.

Piotr Nielubowicz (CFO):

"selling expenses due to our promotional activity related to the Cyberpunk product family, including the Nintendo Switch 2 edition..."

• Translation: We spent heavily to be a launch title on the new Nintendo console. This was a calculated expenditure that paid off in Q3 but is a one-time event.